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"Crocodile v the Shark" - Iranian elections

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Zagros View Drop Down
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: "Crocodile v the Shark" - Iranian elections
    Posted: 18-Dec-2006 at 08:34
I thought this would be a good read for, and give a little insight to, people who view Iran's government as a monolithic institution. It puts the power structures and struggles into perspective.

Some highlights:

"Rafsanjani, aka "the shark", remains the chairman of the Expediency Council and virtually the regime's No 2, behind Supreme Leader Ali al-Khamenei and ahead of Ahmadinejad. Iranian pop culture, with a tinge of Discovery Channel, delighted in describing this as the battle between the crocodile and the shark."

"Yazdi is also the spiritual mentor of the Hojjatieh, a sort of ultra-fundamentalist sect whose literal interpretation of Shi'ite tradition holds that chaos in mankind is a necessary precondition for the imminent arrival of the Mahdi - the 12th hidden (since AD 941) Shi'ite imam who will come to save the world from injustice and widespread corruption. Ahmadinejad may not be a Hojjatieh himself, but he understands where they are coming from. "

(scary stuff, reminds me of the psychotic apocolyptic, Zionist supporting, Christians in America. It seems that the Neo-Cons, both in Iran and the US share a common interest: Chaos, death and destruction for the creation of a new world order.)


"Yazdi has been trying a different strategy - to take over the Council of Experts from the inside and then overwhelm Khamenei. It's fair to argue that Khamenei has played a very deft hand. He firmly supported Yazdi before the 2005 presidential election, but lately has rallied his followers - and the full machinery of the system - to keep Yazdi and his protege, Ahmadinejad, under control."    

Full article: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HL19Ak04.html
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Dec-2006 at 11:03
People often fail to understand how dictatorships work because all what they can see if the figure heads. Behind the monolithic facade, there is often a complex political machine at work.

A very similar dynamics occurred in Mexico at the end of the Porfirio Diaz dictatorship. Two rival groups within the system were fighting out who would control the country. Porfirio Diaz, the dictator, would often shift favor from one side to the next, until he was forced to choose a side.

A similar power struggled occurred later from the 1980s to 2000 in Mexico.

Thanks for sharing this article. I really hope that more people will learn about the subtleties of Iran.
    

Edited by hugoestr - 18-Dec-2006 at 11:04
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Dec-2006 at 14:23
I don't see Iran as a dictatorship, per se. It is a theocratic democracy. Seems somewhat oxymoronic, I know, but at the end of the day people do have some capacity in forging direction, domestically.

I really hope this Yazdi nutjob and his followers and protege's are dealt with soon.

--

"The world isnt Florida and the U.S. isnt its Supreme Leader
On municipal elections in Iran"

Author: "Behrooz Ghamari is a professor of history and sociology at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. He can be reached at bghamari@uiuc.edu. He is the author of the forthcoming book Islam and Dissent in Postrevolutionary Iran."

http://www.iranian.com/Ghamari/2006/December/Elections120/index.html




I think you will like this article Hugo.

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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Dec-2006 at 17:26
Sorry for the misnomer. I guess I am just showing the normal view of the West on Iran

Well I will read more about Iran then :)

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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Dec-2006 at 15:25
Thanks for the article, Zagros. It is an interesting insight into Iran.


So, how much liberty do opposition candidates have in Iran? How does the theocratic democracy works?
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Dec-2006 at 16:01
That was touched on in the first article. Basically the guardian council approves candidates for parliament and excludes anyone they don't like, mostly liberals and moderates.

But this latest election was unique in that such candidates were not excluded in any way like that of the presedential elections last year. That article speculates that this was due to Khamene'i seeking to curb the Ahmadinezhad/Yazdi camp's power. Apparently he likes to keep things mixed and even so that no one faction will get too powerful.

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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Dec-2006 at 03:59
Here is an official illustration of the power structure:

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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Dec-2006 at 04:52
Iran rejects a demagogue
December 20, 2006

ELECTIONS TO Iran's city councils and the clerical body called the Assembly of Experts suggest that even small doses of democracy can deliver a potent therapeutic wallop.

    

A surprisingly good take from an American outlet.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Dec-2006 at 15:05
I read that piece. It was good.

So let me see if I understand correctly: the unelected institutions functions as a check on the elected institutions.

The power of the supreme leader is not direct, then, but inderect, through his power of veto against candidates. But once the candidates have been approve, their election runs as a democracy, right?

Does the supreme leader can draft legislation, or can it only veto it?
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Dec-2006 at 15:10
Only veto. But he has direct control over all of the security and armed forces too.

There is also the shadowy IRGC and the interior ministry, the equivalent of the Praetorian guard, they can blackmail, coerce and collude with the official political bodies. They formulate and direct strategic foreign policy too.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Dec-2006 at 06:00
Thanks! So the supreme leader is really not that different from earlier version of the US president: elected indirectly through a small group of electors, commander in chief of the military forces, and with veto power. The main difference is that it seems that the supreme leader can potentially have the job for the rest of his life, and that it cannot create legislation directly.

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