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US signs missile defense deal with Poland.

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URL: http://www.allempires.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=25207
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Topic: US signs missile defense deal with Poland.
Posted By: Penelope
Subject: US signs missile defense deal with Poland.
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 01:35
Condoleeza Rice, US Secretary of State signed a deal this morning which will allow the US to build a missile defense base in Poland. This deal has, to no surprise, infuriated Russia, who has now threatened to attack Poland.
 
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3585321,00.html - Click here for the link.
 
I'm just curious as to what everyones thoughts and opinions are on this.


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The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations.



Replies:
Posted By: pikeshot1600
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 01:54
For some points of view, see the thread on Georgia/S. Ossetia in this forum.  It has morphed into a discussion of Russian interests and policy. 
 
 
 


Posted By: Penelope
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 03:01
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

For some points of view, see the thread on Georgia/S. Ossetia in this forum.  It has morphed into a discussion of Russian interests and policy. 
 
 
 
 
Good idea.


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The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations.


Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 12:03

Russians are so hypocritical stating this is a threat to Russia,when it is just a DEFENCE system!How can a defence system be possibly a threat?The truth is russians simply don't want Poland (or any post-cummunistic) country to be well defended.They want to remain "the strong guy" with the rockets,who can threaten the small eastern-european countries.VikingNow they feel they are loosing this option and stating it is a "threat" to them. Wacko



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Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 13:01
True. It's bollocks if the Russians begin a nuclear war to avoid defensive structures... (although, as I've understood the defense means a missile launcher, but still). 

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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 13:06
Originally posted by rider

True. It's bollocks if the Russians begin a nuclear war to avoid defensive structures... (although, as I've understood the defense means a missile launcher, but still). 
 
A missile launcher,which can only target other missiles,and not stike ground targets.However,the russians being a nuclear power with huge army and many nuclear missiles "think" it is a threat for their country.Confused
 
(rather their interrests in the region i would say) 


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Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 13:31

Exactly... I'm actually waiting for Sarmat to come in here and start telling how the Russian government is threatened by the unlawful baphoons in Poland who allow foreign missiles on their soil or something similar. 

I'd personally like a missile defense unit into Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, Estonia and Ukraine also. Just to be certain. 



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Posted By: Bankotsu
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 13:39

...Washington's pursuit of nuclear primacy helps explain its missile-defense strategy, for example. Critics of missile defense argue that a national missile shield, such as the prototype the United States has deployed in Alaska and California, would be easily overwhelmed by a cloud of warheads and decoys launched by Russia or China. They are right: even a multilayered system with land-, air-, sea-, and space-based elements, is highly unlikely to protect the United States from a major nuclear attack. But they are wrong to conclude that such a missile-defense system is therefore worthless -- as are the supporters of missile defense who argue that, for similar reasons, such a system could be of concern only to rogue states and terrorists and not to other major nuclear powers.

What both of these camps overlook is that the sort of missile defenses that the United States might plausibly deploy would be valuable primarily in an offensive context, not a defensive one -- as an adjunct to a U.S. first-strike capability, not as a standalone shield. If the United States launched a nuclear attack against Russia (or China), the targeted country would be left with a tiny surviving arsenal -- if any at all. At that point, even a relatively modest or inefficient missile-defense system might well be enough to protect against any retaliatory strikes, because the devastated enemy would have so few warheads and decoys left.

During the Cold War, Washington relied on its nuclear arsenal not only to deter nuclear strikes by its enemies but also to deter the Warsaw Pact from exploiting its conventional military superiority to attack Western Europe. It was primarily this latter mission that made Washington rule out promises of "no first use" of nuclear weapons. Now that such a mission is obsolete and the United States is beginning to regain nuclear primacy, however, Washington's continued refusal to eschew a first strike and the country's development of a limited missile-defense capability take on a new, and possibly more menacing, look. The most logical conclusions to make are that a nuclear-war-fighting capability remains a key component of the United States' military doctrine and that nuclear primacy remains a goal of the United States...

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p30/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html - http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p30/


'08 missile defenses: harking back to the 1980s?

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080821/116185685.html - http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080821/116185685.html

US missile shield nothing to celebrate: Polish town's mayor
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_missile_shield_nothing_to_celebrate_Polish_towns_mayor_999.html - http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_missile_shield_nothing


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 14:04
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Russians are so hypocritical stating this is a threat to Russia,when it is just a DEFENCE system!How can a defence system be possibly a threat?The truth is russians simply don't want Poland (or any post-cummunistic) country to be well defended.They want to remain "the strong guy" with the rockets,who can threaten the small eastern-european countries.VikingNow they feel they are loosing this option and stating it is a "threat" to them. Wacko

 
Imagine for a while that this defence system is effective. In this case equilibrium between nuclear forces of Russia and States is shifted. Russia cannot defend herself from nuclear attack from USA side. Which gives very strong tools for USA and EU in pushing on Russia to give access to her resources. Simple as that. Much less people care about Poland than you would like to think.


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 14:09
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

 
A missile launcher,which can only target other missiles,and not stike ground targets.However,the russians being a nuclear power with huge army and many nuclear missiles "think" it is a threat for their country.Confused
 
(rather their interrests in the region i would say) 
 
This missiles are precedent. If americans succeed creating really effective shield they will place it in Poland again.


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Posted By: Flipper
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 14:13
I agree with Anton...

Imagine if Russia had installed a "defence system" in Canada. That would weaken US possition. The US side would feel threatened as well...

On another point of view...A defence system is installed...A defence system based on missiles can support other functions as well. In a case of a crisis, such launch pads could fire other "things".

The protection of the EU and US allies from Iran does not convince me at all. It might be in first sight a defence system but...there's definetely a deeper though on the issue by both US and Russia.


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Så nu tar jag fram (k)niven va!


Posted By: Antioxos
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 15:02
Originally posted by Flipper

I agree with Anton...

Imagine if Russia had installed a "defence system" in Canada. That would weaken US possition. The US side would feel threatened as well...

On another point of view...A defence system is installed...A defence system based on missiles can support other functions as well. In a case of a crisis, such launch pads could fire other "things".

The protection of the EU and US allies from Iran does not convince me at all. It might be in first sight a defence system but...there's definetely a deeper though on the issue by both US and Russia.
Or imagine if Russia would install this system in Cuba.
The game is between Russia and US , the states of Eastern Europe are the tools for this game.US wants to stay the only imperialistic state  and dominate the world but Russia want his share in this domination. The  states of old  Europe are more neutral because are  more experienced from the US policies .


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By http://profile.imageshack.us/user/antioxos - antioxos at 2007-08-20


Posted By: Majkes
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 21:49
To be honest I see no need for such shield in Poland. It only focused terrorists attention on Poland. As to Iran threat it simply doesn't exist in Poland.


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 22:12
Originally posted by Anton

Imagine for a while that this defence system is effective. In this case equilibrium between nuclear forces of Russia and States is shifted. Russia cannot defend herself from nuclear attack from USA side.


what equilibrium? the equilibrium is already over since 18 years but some people still haven't noticed or won't accept this. no one prevents Russia from installing a shield in Canada but Canadians. no one prevents Russians to install such a shield in Poland other than Poles. as you can see USA suceeded in Poland and as far as i know Russia hasn't applied to Canada for such a shield so where's the problem? why do you think the US wants to nuke Russia? did you hide in a cave the last 20 years or something? Cold war is over and lost for Russia/USSR, get over it, whining doesn't help.


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 22:33
Equilibrium in nuclear power obviously.
 
" no one prevents Russia from installing a shield in Canada but Canadians. "
There was a talk about installing ballistic missiles in Cuba just a month ago. Some american authorities started histeria on that question.
 
"why do you think the US wants to nuke Russia?"
If you kindly finish reading my post you will find the asnwer.


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Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 21-Aug-2008 at 22:41
Originally posted by Anton

Equilibrium in nuclear power obviously.


so what, USA and Russia are not the only nucelar powers in the world in case you haven't noticed that, take France, Israel and Pakistan for example, heck even Germany has nukes even though they're American ones.
 
" no one prevents Russia from installing a shield in Canada but Canadians. "
There was a talk about installing ballistic missiles in Cuba just a month ago. Some american authorities started histeria on that question.


then let's see how this one will turn out.
 
"why do you think the US wants to nuke Russia?"
If you kindly finish reading my post you will find the asnwer.


thats ridiculous, USA is not Nazi germany, the US has obviously already found other ways to procure their ressources. besides Russia is obviously offering their ressoruces to enrich itself and also uses it as a political tool. if Russia uses its ressources as a bitch, it shouldn't be surprised if it gets raped and shot in the face. Nuke


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 00:46

This is not that ridiculous from Russian point of view. USA started several wars past 10 years. At least one of them (Iraq) was clearly due to control over resources. Iran is unsecure for similar reasons. Why should Russia feel safe?

 
"if Russia uses its ressources as a bitch, it shouldn't be surprised if it gets raped and shot in the face. Nuke"
"did you hide in a cave the last 20 years or something? Cold war is over and lost for Russia/USSR, get over it, whining doesn't help."
 
I am not sure I understood your pathetics. I am not sure you understood it yourself. Smile 


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 00:52
Here is the citate from NY Times that says exactly what I mean:
 
Originally posted by NY Times

Let’s start with us. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, I was among the group — led by George Kennan, the father of “containment” theory, Senator Sam Nunn and the foreign policy expert Michael Mandelbaum — that argued against expanding NATO, at that time.

It seemed to us that since we had finally brought down Soviet communism and seen the birth of democracy in Russia the most important thing to do was to help Russian democracy take root and integrate Russia into Europe. Wasn’t that why we fought the cold war — to give young Russians the same chance at freedom and integration with the West as young Czechs, Georgians and Poles? Wasn’t consolidating a democratic Russia more important than bringing the Czech Navy into NATO?

All of this was especially true because, we argued, there was no big problem on the world stage that we could effectively address without Russia — particularly Iran or Iraq. Russia wasn’t about to reinvade Europe. And the Eastern Europeans would be integrated into the West via membership in the European Union.

No, said the Clinton foreign policy team, we’re going to cram NATO expansion down the Russians’ throats, because Moscow is weak and, by the way, they’ll get used to it. Message to Russians: We expect you to behave like Western democrats, but we’re going to treat you like you’re still the Soviet Union. The cold war is over for you, but not for us.

“The Clinton and Bush foreign policy teams acted on the basis of two false premises,” said Mandelbaum. “One was that Russia is innately aggressive and that the end of the cold war could not possibly change this, so we had to expand our military alliance up to its borders. Despite all the pious blather about using NATO to promote democracy, the belief in Russia’s eternal aggressiveness is the only basis on which NATO expansion ever made sense — especially when you consider that the Russians were told they could not join. The other premise was that Russia would always be too weak to endanger any new NATO members, so we would never have to commit troops to defend them. It would cost us nothing. They were wrong on both counts.”

 
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/opinion/20friedman.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/opinion/20friedman.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin


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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 00:56
Anton,why do you only compare USA and Russia,as if they are the only countries in the world and only they can wage wars?What about Poland itself?What equilibrium is there between Poland and Russia?Russia has got nuclear weapons,with wich it can ruin whole Poland,and Poland doesn't have such weapons to do the same in respond.Now Poland tries at least to have some kind of defence and you say it is unfare towards Russia?It is a threat to Russia?So russians deserve the right to have nuclear weapons and threaten the small countries with them,but the small countries do not deserve protection from those weapons?As i already wrote - the system is not a threat to russian national security,it is only a threat to russian influence in the region and that is something good!

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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 11:25
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Anton,why do you only compare USA and Russia,as if they are the only countries in the world and only they can wage wars?What about Poland itself?What equilibrium is there between Poland and Russia?Russia has got nuclear weapons,with wich it can ruin whole Poland,and Poland doesn't have such weapons to do the same in respond.Now Poland tries at least to have some kind of defence and you say it is unfare towards Russia?It is a threat to Russia?So russians deserve the right to have nuclear weapons and threaten the small countries with them,but the small countries do not deserve protection from those weapons?As i already wrote - the system is not a threat to russian national security,it is only a threat to russian influence in the region and that is something good!
 
Because Poland is protected by NATO organization including USA. If Russia starts nuclear war against Poland NATO will do the same to Russia.


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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 11:42
I really always doubted that premise, even in the cold war./ If Poland dose something stupid or the Russians something agressive, its 1st Sep '39 again.
 
Poland hosting the missile defense system makes the a legitamate target. No doubt those radars and missiles will attacked as part of a general nuclear strike, by aircraft (against who they are useless) or by sub missile which arrive too quickly.
 


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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 11:45
Originally posted by Anton

Because Poland is protected by NATO organization including USA. If Russia starts nuclear war against Poland NATO will do the same to Russia.
 
 
That is for the moment.But we know such organizations do not last forever.There might be some stability in the world at the moment,but it will not be forever.What will happen when this stability dissapears?What will happen if NATO dissapears?Poland will be left defenceless...And we know from history that russians tend to have imperialistic ambitions and never miss a chance to invade a defenceless country - especially eastern-european.We've seen it many times - the last time they did it with their best friends - the nazi.I don't want Poland to be defenceless the next time a crazy dicator in Russia descides to invade us.Even with the shield we'll be weaker than Russia,but at least we'll have protection from their nuclear missiles.I don't see how this is a threat to Russia and why you think we should be left completely defenceless...
 


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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 11:50
Originally posted by Sparten

I really always doubted that premise, even in the cold war./ If Poland dose something stupid or the Russians something agressive, its 1st Sep '39 again.
 
Poland hosting the missile defense system makes the a legitamate target. No doubt those radars and missiles will attacked as part of a general nuclear strike, by aircraft (against who they are useless) or by sub missile which arrive too quickly.
 
 
Poland was always number one target for the russians,so doesn't really change anything.When (because it surely will happen one day) the current stability dissapears and it is almost every country for itself Poland will be one of the firs targets for Russia,as it already was many times.So it is at least quite better with that shield,than without it.I would rather see my country completely destroyed because we chose to fight (as it happened 60 years ago),than simply occupated without any struggle.


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Posted By: Slayertplsko
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 11:55
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

the last time they did it with their best friends - the nazi.


To be honest, the last time they invaded was in 1968 and you were invading on their side (plus other three countries). Just for record.

Nevertheless, I agree with what you have said. It is no threat to Russia's sovereignity.


Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:03
Originally posted by Slayertplsko

Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

the last time they did it with their best friends - the nazi.


To be honest, the last time they invaded was in 1968 and you were invading on their side (plus other three countries). Just for record.

Nevertheless, I agree with what you have said. It is no threat to Russia's sovereignity.
 
I meant the last time they invaded us - Poland was with the NAZI.In 1968 it was again an attack solely made by the russians,because they gave orders to their satelites to follow them.Poles,bulgarians and other participants in this invasion did not descide to attack - they were ordered by Moscow to do so and even if they didn't want to they had no choice.


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Posted By: Antioxos
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:25

The missle defence system in Poland serve the American interest and not Poland interest .

Americans will use it only if is in danger the American interest .With a small search in the past you ll see that american bases in the world do not involve in the local conflicts but only if American interest are in danger.Furthermore the cold war characterized from  the absence of a declared   war .The rival states participated in this kind of war start up a military buildup and political battles for support around the world. These activities included the significant involvement of allied and  satellite nation  in local "third party" wars.

With this way i dont think that  US will start III world war to protect Poland if we suppose that Russia has interest to invade to Poland that is very improbable because you dont invade to a country member of E.U. just for fun , you must have more benefits than loses from this action.Usually rival-imperialistic states saw their power to small countries like Georgia , Iraq etc.


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By http://profile.imageshack.us/user/antioxos - antioxos at 2007-08-20


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:26
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

That is for the moment.But we know such organizations do not last forever.There might be some stability in the world at the moment,but it will not be forever.What will happen when this stability dissapears?What will happen if NATO dissapears?Poland will be left defenceless...
Do you see any signs of disapearing NATO? What I see so far is increasing in number of NATO countries with countries who's behavior is unfriendly to Russia.
 
And we know from history that russians tend to have imperialistic ambitions and never miss a chance to invade a defenceless country - especially eastern-european.
 
We know from history that only nuclear attack so far was done by Americans, those who are now creating a tool make Russian nuclear power ineffective. Those, I remind you, who at the state level never felt sorry about Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We see that same Americans military supported Georgia who basically started the war in SO. What would happen if they were in NATO, what do you think? So far we see that Americans not only try to control the strategical resource rich regions but do not bother to invade key countries in those regions. This is what we know from recent years. All this makes Russia to be worried about her security.
 
We've seen it many times - the last time they did it with their best friends - the nazi.
I noted this masterpiece but will not comment it Smile
 
I don't want Poland to be defenceless the next time a crazy dicator in Russia descides to invade us.Even with the shield we'll be weaker than Russia,but at least we'll have protection from their nuclear missiles.
Crazy dictator Saakashvili recently invaded South Osetia which somehow turned out to be a reason for Poland to search for defence from Russia.
 
 
I don't see how this is a threat to Russia and why you think we should be left completely defenceless...
Looks like the discussion goes full circle.


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:30
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Poland was always number one target for the russians,so doesn't really change anything.When (because it surely will happen one day) the current stability dissapears and it is almost every country for itself Poland will be one of the firs targets for Russia,as it already was many times.So it is at least quite better with that shield,than without it.I would rather see my country completely destroyed because we chose to fight (as it happened 60 years ago),than simply occupated without any struggle.
 
So why don't you seek for defence from Germany?


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Posted By: Roberts
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:32
Originally posted by Antioxos

The missle defence system in Poland serve the American interest and not Poland interest .

I think Poles would beg to differ. Plus they get fairly big rent $.



Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:36
Originally posted by Anton

 
 
We know from history that only nuclear attack so far was done by Americans, those who are now creating a tool make Russian nuclear power ineffective. Those, I remind you, who at the state level never felt sorry about Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We see that same Americans military supported Georgia who basically started the war in SO. What would happen if they were in NATO, what do you think? So far we see that Americans not only try to control the strategical resource rich regions but do not bother to invade key countries in those regions. This is what we know from recent years. All this makes Russia to be worried about her security.
 
 
 
If you want to discuss the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki open a new thread where i can explain why i see those attacks as one of the best solutions in the war.
 
I noted this masterpiece but will not comment it Smile
 
Not stating you're opinion you simply agree with mine.
 
 
 
 
Crazy dictator Saakashvili recently invaded South Osetia which somehow turned out to be a reason for Poland to search for defence from Russia.
 [QUOTE]
 
This is also another thread so i will not write here why the whole war was fabricated by the russians solely out of economical purposes.This is my opinion of the war :
 
 
In fact you didn't answer my post at all,just turned to other topics.


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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:41
Originally posted by Anton

Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Poland was always number one target for the russians,so doesn't really change anything.When (because it surely will happen one day) the current stability dissapears and it is almost every country for itself Poland will be one of the firs targets for Russia,as it already was many times.So it is at least quite better with that shield,than without it.I would rather see my country completely destroyed because we chose to fight (as it happened 60 years ago),than simply occupated without any struggle.
 
So why don't you seek for defence from Germany?
 
Because Germany is totally different from what it was 60 years ago,while in Russia only the economical system is changed and the names of those that rule.Putin brought back the censorship,persecution of disidents,political propaganda and imperialism of the old USSR,so at least Russia's foreign policy isn't much different than this in 1939.We can see a new kind of USSR rising and that's why they are a threat to us and the germans aren't.


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:46
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

If you want to discuss the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki open a new thread where i can explain why i see those attacks as one of the best solutions in the war.
 
No thnx, I am not interested in you explanation. I find them wrong as I heard them from others.
 
Not stating you're opinion you simply agree with mine.
 
I don't mind if you think so. Cheers  Yet something's wrong with your education if you say Soviets and Nazi are best friends.
 
This is also another thread so i will not write here why the whole war was fabricated by the russians solely out of economical purposes.
You don't need to write it. Everything was sounded by Saakashvili. It is not convincing. Even western mass media recognize that.
 
 
In fact you didn't answer my post at all,just turned to other topics.
Look few posts above. The explanation about equilibrium etc. Look also Flipper's and Antioxos' posts.


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:49
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Because Germany is totally different from what it was 60 years ago,while in Russia only the economical system is changed and the names of those that rule.Putin brought back the censorship,persecution of disidents,political propaganda and imperialism of the old USSR,so at least Russia's foreign policy isn't much different than this in 1939.We can see a new kind of USSR rising and that's why they are a threat to us and the germans aren't.
 
You are entirely fundamentally wrong. This is just antirussian histeria in your mind. I have nothing more to say actually.


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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 12:56
Originally posted by Anton

I don't mind if you think so. Cheers  Yet something's wrong with your education if you say Soviets and Nazi are best friends.
 
 
 
They were best friend in 1939,when as alies signed the Molotov-Ribentrop pact in Moscow and a few days later attacked Poland from two sides.They became enemies in 1941 only because Hitler attacked,before that they had good relations.
 
 
Soviet and Nazi soldiers in Poland - best friends :
 
 
Soviet-Nazi parade in Brest- LItovsk : http://www.vbox7.com/play:8d6cb7f6 - http://www.vbox7.com/play:8d6cb7f6


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Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 15:16
Originally posted by Anton

This is not that ridiculous from Russian point of view. USA started several wars past 10 years. At least one of them (Iraq) was clearly due to control over resources. Iran is unsecure for similar reasons. Why should Russia feel safe?


yes it is ridiculous and tell you why: in one sentence you talk about "equilibrium", that means USA and Russia are equals, as nculear powers. in the NEXT sentence you compare Russia to Iraq, a third world country, as possible victim of the US. obviously it is YOU who doesn't know what you're talking about, least it betrays your own hypocracy very obviously.


 
"if Russia uses its ressources as a bitch, it shouldn't be surprised if it gets raped and shot in the face. Nuke"
"did you hide in a cave the last 20 years or something? Cold war is over and lost for Russia/USSR, get over it, whining doesn't help."
 
I am not sure I understood your pathetics. I am not sure you understood it yourself. Smile 


those are not "pathetics" but i can understand why you can't comprehend what i'm saying. Smile


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 15:20
Originally posted by Anton

Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Poland was always number one target for the russians,so doesn't really change anything.When (because it surely will happen one day) the current stability dissapears and it is almost every country for itself Poland will be one of the firs targets for Russia,as it already was many times.So it is at least quite better with that shield,than without it.I would rather see my country completely destroyed because we chose to fight (as it happened 60 years ago),than simply occupated without any struggle.
 
So why don't you seek for defence from Germany?


what a question. Germany and Poland are friends now in the first place and co-operate.


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 16:49
Originally posted by Temujin


yes it is ridiculous and tell you why: in one sentence you talk about "equilibrium", that means USA and Russia are equals, as nculear powers. in the NEXT sentence you compare Russia to Iraq, a third world country, as possible victim of the US. obviously it is YOU who doesn't know what you're talking about, least it betrays your own hypocracy very obviously.

The equilibrium is at present but if USA manage to create effective missile defence system Russia will turn out to be at Iraq level in comparison to USA. Is it that tough to understand?


 those are not "pathetics" but i can understand why you can't comprehend what i'm saying. Smile
 
Then I am happy to realize that you are much smarter than me Smile And apparently than some american authorities. Those who do not understand this "cold war is over for Russians but not for us" demagogy. Like the guy who's note I posted yesterday.


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 16:55
Originally posted by Temujin


what a question. Germany and Poland are friends now in the first place and co-operate.
 
But the logic was that once yet unknown Russian crazy dictator will attack Poland. How about defence from crazy German dictator? I smell hypocrisy here.


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Posted By: Roberts
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 17:07
Originally posted by Anton

Originally posted by Temujin


what a question. Germany and Poland are friends now in the first place and co-operate.
 
But the logic was that once yet unknown Russian crazy dictator will attack Poland. How about defence from crazy German dictator? I smell hypocrisy here.


LOL crazy German dictator? Germany is way more likely to break up in smaller states like Bavaria, Saxony etc. than a crazy dictator seizing all power in Germany. German nation learned their lesson in WWII, but Russians didn't.


Posted By: Bankotsu
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 17:07
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

I meant the last time they invaded us - Poland was with the NAZI.


Your views Warnencz on below strategy?

...And by this date, certain members of the Milner Group and of the British Conservative government had reached the fantastic idea that they could kill two birds with one stone by setting Germany and Russia against one another in Eastern Europe.

In this way they felt that the two enemies would stalemate one another, or that Germany would become satisfied with the oil of Rumania and the wheat of the Ukraine.  It never occurred to anyone in a responsible position that Germany and Russia might make common cause, even temporarily, against the West.  Even less did it occur to them that Russia might beat Germany and thus open all Central Europe to Bolshevism.

In order to carry out this plan of allowing Germany to drive eastward against Russia, it was necessary to do three things:

(1) to liquidate all the countries standing between Germany and Russia;
(2) to prevent France from honoring her alliances with these countries;  and
(3) to hoodwink the English people into accepting this as a necessary, indeed, the only solution to the international problem.

The Chamberlain group were so successful in all three of these things that they came within an ace of succeeding, and failed only because of the obstinacy of the Poles, the unseemly haste of Hitler, and the fact that at the eleventh hour the Milner Group realized the implications of their policy and tried to reverse it...


http://yamaguchy.netfirms.com/cikkek/anglo_12b.html - http://yamaguchy.netfirms.com/cikkek/anglo_12b.html





Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 18:01
Originally posted by Anton

Originally posted by Temujin


what a question. Germany and Poland are friends now in the first place and co-operate.
 
But the logic was that once yet unknown Russian crazy dictator will attack Poland. How about defence from crazy German dictator? I smell hypocrisy here.

How about Medjedjev or Putin? Both are Russian, crazy and dictators... Wink



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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 18:20
Originally posted by Roberts

...but Russians didn't.
 
They did learn quite a lot from 70 years of "kommunism".


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 18:25
Originally posted by rider

How about Medjedjev or Putin? Both are Russian, crazy and dictators... Wink

 
Are they? I would call them wrong people in a wrong place rather than dictators. Besides, your statement conradicts itself -- how could you imagine two crazy dictators ruling the same country.


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Posted By: Roberts
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 18:29
Originally posted by Anton

Originally posted by Roberts

...but Russians didn't.
 
They did learn quite a lot from 70 years of "kommunism".

Agree, one of the reasons why Baltic states took the chance and got independence again, is that the same Russians became disgruntled with the failure of communism and grave economic situation in SU and destroyed the state from inside. But it is sad to see Russia again taking one party authoritarian system. If the "united Russia" party stays in power for a very long time, we might as well see the replay of the last days of SU (not territorially wise, but politically).


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 18:40
I think the situation is like a pendulum. After authoritarian regime you had "democracy" which looked more lake anarchy. Putin phenomenon is a result of the opposite movement of the pendulum but it never reached the previous maximum.  Now, apparently, pendulum moves back to "democratical half" with Medvedev increasing his power. The thing is that antirussian hysteria might shift the pendulum back. I am not sure I explained well the allegory...

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Posted By: Majkes
Date Posted: 22-Aug-2008 at 21:49
I've read the deal we concluded with americans and I must say that after so long negotiations our goverment have won whole shit. We get no money, Patriot system is not written into the deal, American gurantees are only protecting us against missile attack.
Though it was very funny watching our prime minister and president giving malices to each other. One polish tv made even small video about it.
I liked best when our prime minister Tusk asked Kaczynski ( who doesn't know English at all ) to welcome Condoliza Rice and say few words in EnglishLOL.


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 00:59
Originally posted by Anton

The equilibrium is at present but if USA manage to create effective missile defence system Russia will turn out to be at Iraq level in comparison to USA. Is it that tough to understand? Those who do not understand this "cold war is over for Russians but not for us" demagogy.

the equilibrium has already been destroyed by the end of the Cold War, the missile shield will just underline and consolidate that. those ex-Warsaw pact countries that now rally under the NATO banner are the victory prize, the booty of the Cold War for the US. i take it you assume the US wants to continue the Cold War while in fact it is Russia that apparently wants to resume it. as i can see with this missile shield another arms race has begun that Russia can't hope to win anyways. Russia would not be the first great power to fall from empire to insignificance over such issues. hello Austria!


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 01:01
Originally posted by Anton

how could you imagine two crazy dictators ruling the same country.


Stalin - Kalinin comes to mind.


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 01:03
Originally posted by Anton

I think the situation is like a pendulum. After authoritarian regime you had "democracy" which looked more lake anarchy. Putin phenomenon is a result of the opposite movement of the pendulum but it never reached the previous maximum.  Now, apparently, pendulum moves back to "democratical half" with Medvedev increasing his power. The thing is that antirussian hysteria might shift the pendulum back. I am not sure I explained well the allegory...


that sounds like Russia is an unstable country. unstable countries are a danger, to themselves and their neighbours.


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 05:21

Temujin; Russia has a lot of cash lots, something US dose not these days.

 

Now imagine if they and their buds the Chinese decide to dump all those greebacks they hold................



-------------


Posted By: Penelope
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 06:49
Originally posted by Roberts

Originally posted by Anton

Originally posted by Roberts

...but Russians didn't.
 
They did learn quite a lot from 70 years of "kommunism".

Agree, one of the reasons why Baltic states took the chance and got independence again, is that the same Russians became disgruntled with the failure of communism and grave economic situation in SU and destroyed the state from inside. But it is sad to see Russia again taking one party authoritarian system. If the "united Russia" party stays in power for a very long time, we might as well see the replay of the last days of SU (not territorially wise, but politically).
 
So would you say that this new regime is even more dangerous than the old one?


-------------
The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations.


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 22:29
Originally posted by Temujin

the equilibrium has already been destroyed by the end of the Cold War, the missile shield will just underline and consolidate that.
The equilibrium wasn't destroyed as Russia has as many neclear weapons as Soviet Union did. I repeate again it is equilibrium in strategic nuclear weapon not geopolitical victories/looses.
 
 those ex-Warsaw pact countries that now rally under the NATO banner are the victory prize, the booty of the Cold War for the US.
OK, but this victory is temporal and lasted as long as low oil prices.
 
i take it you assume the US wants to continue the Cold War while in fact it is Russia that apparently wants to resume it.
Not only me but many other political analysts think in similar manner. Not only Russian and pro-Russian ones.
 
as i can see with this missile shield another arms race has begun that Russia can't hope to win anyways. Russia would not be the first great power to fall from empire to insignificance over such issues. hello Austria!
You underestimate Russian size and geopolitical influence. Actually many analysts in western press start to speak about decline (relative!) of USA and rise of Russia and China (and possibly some others like India and Brazyl in the future). So actually, so far I do not see Austrian destiny for Russia. 


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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 22:32
Originally posted by Temujin


that sounds like Russia is an unstable country. unstable countries are a danger, to themselves and their neighbours.
 
This sound like normal trends from left to right and back.  


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Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 19:32
Originally posted by Sparten

Temujin; Russia has a lot of cash lots, something US dose not these days.

 

Now imagine if they and their buds the Chinese decide to dump all those greebacks they hold................



this is funny because the "cash" Russia has comes from the West (europe) and same goes for China which prides itself with western achievements and money. i ask you who really has the money? Wink

oh yeah and BTW, why does everyone think Russia and China are so good friends?


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 19:43
Originally posted by Anton

The equilibrium wasn't destroyed as Russia has as many neclear weapons as Soviet Union did. I repeate again it is equilibrium in strategic nuclear weapon not geopolitical victories/looses.


this has nothing to do with nukes alone but with the ability of global influence and ability for intervention, something Russia lost almost totally (Serbia, Afghanistan, just to mention the closest). i already said you number of nukes is pointless because even one nuke alone is thread enough so considder France in your neighbourhood.
 
OK, but this victory is temporal and lasted as long as low oil prices.


thats what you think, Europe (west AND east) has descided for the US not because of "oil prices". LOL

Not only me but many other political analysts think in similar manner. Not only Russian and pro-Russian ones.


yeah, the anti-american ones as well. see above why i am right.
 
You underestimate Russian size and geopolitical influence. Actually many analysts in western press start to speak about decline (relative!) of USA and rise of Russia and China (and possibly some others like India and Brazyl in the future). So actually, so far I do not see Austrian destiny for Russia. 


there is no decline of the US, actually since the fall of the Soviet Union it is globally pretty much without competition except for China, or why do you think the "Axis of Evil" member Northkorea does no longer appear in the headlines? US can't intervene in the sphere of China but it can and does in the sphere of Russia, look at Baltics, Poland, Ukraine (partially), Georgia (eventually).


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 21:47
Originally posted by Temujin


this has nothing to do with nukes alone but with the ability of global influence and ability for intervention, something Russia lost almost totally (Serbia, Afghanistan, just to mention the closest). i already said you number of nukes is pointless because even one nuke alone is thread enough so considder France in your neighbourhood.
No reason to discuss the issue anymore. Either you don't understand what I mena or I don't.
 
 
 

thats what you think, Europe (west AND east) has descided for the US not because of "oil prices". LOL

You better be carefull what you read. I mean is that major reason of SU system collaps was economical. The main reason of returning of Russia as geopolitical power is economical again. In both cases it was changes in resource prices. Besides, recent reaction of EU on the Georgian issue is not something what USA wouldd expect.
 
 

yeah, the anti-american ones as well. see above why i am right. 
I do not understand how could people who worked in American government be anti-american. See my recent citation.
 

 


there is no decline of the US, actually since the fall of the Soviet Union it is globally pretty much without competition except for China, or why do you think the "Axis of Evil" member Northkorea does no longer appear in the headlines?

 
This is what I mean -- relative decline. USA is not the only "superpower" anymore.
 
US can't intervene in the sphere of China but it can and does in the sphere of Russia, look at Baltics, Poland, Ukraine (partially), Georgia (eventually).
Georgia's good example. Good example of what I said -- there are areas where Russia appears showed herself to be geopolitically stronger than US. US simply has no ways of influencing Russia on this question.


-------------
.


Posted By: Penelope
Date Posted: 25-Aug-2008 at 07:36
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Sparten

Temujin; Russia has a lot of cash lots, something US dose not these days.

 

Now imagine if they and their buds the Chinese decide to dump all those greebacks they hold................



this is funny because the "cash" Russia has comes from the West (europe) and same goes for China which prides itself with western achievements and money. i ask you who really has the money? Wink

oh yeah and BTW, why does everyone think Russia and China are so good friends?
 
Yes, a very common misconception indeed. Similar to people thinking that China and North Korea are good friends, which definately isnt the case.


-------------
The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations.


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 25-Aug-2008 at 13:49
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Sparten

Temujin; Russia has a lot of cash lots, something US dose not these days.

 

Now imagine if they and their buds the Chinese decide to dump all those greebacks they hold................



this is funny because the "cash" Russia has comes from the West (europe) and same goes for China which prides itself with western achievements and money. i ask you who really has the money? Wink

right now the Russians, the 'friendly' middle eastern petro-economies and the Chinese. They hold most of the US debt (treasuries) right now and with that the power to make the greenback worth less than it already is. They don't because it would cause economic chaos, but they have that choice. not the other way around. The question should be, who's paying a mortage to who? 

right now its the I.O.USAWink



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Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 25-Aug-2008 at 19:28
Originally posted by Anton

No reason to discuss the issue anymore. Either you don't understand what I mena or I don't.


i assume the latter Cheers
 
 
 
You better be carefull what you read. I mean is that major reason of SU system collaps was economical. The main reason of returning of Russia as geopolitical power is economical again. In both cases it was changes in resource prices. Besides, recent reaction of EU on the Georgian issue is not something what USA wouldd expect.


economy was only one of the reasons for the SU collapse but it was not the main reason why Poland etc joined NATO.
 
 


I do not understand how could people who worked in American government be anti-american. See my recent citation.


Berezovksy....? Big%20smile

 


This is what I mean -- relative decline. USA is not the only "superpower" anymore.


this is not an evidence of decline as this barrier has already been established at the very beginnign of the Cold War and hasn't changed since. contrary to the examples i gave (afghanistan, Serbia), so if anything, the US has not declined but the contrary occured.
 

Georgia's good example. Good example of what I said -- there are areas where Russia appears showed herself to be geopolitically stronger than US. US simply has no ways of influencing Russia on this question.


as i said: eventually...


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 25-Aug-2008 at 19:29
Originally posted by Penelope

 
Yes, a very common misconception indeed. Similar to people thinking that China and North Korea are good friends, which definately isnt the case.


yeah i know, thats not what i implied. i mean Goergia and Russia obviously aren't good friend either. however China feels comfort with NK at its borders and not the US.


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 25-Aug-2008 at 19:36
Originally posted by Leonidas

right now the Russians, the 'friendly' middle eastern petro-economies and the Chinese. They hold most of the US debt (treasuries) right now and with that the power to make the greenback worth less than it already is. They don't because it would cause economic chaos, but they have that choice. not the other way around. The question should be, who's paying a mortage to who? 

right now its the I.O.USAWink



economic chaos cuts both ways and the established "western countries" would recover sooner than the newcomers and the "west" who caused this knows this, this is the reason that this situation exists in the first place, i mean its more or less secure because if i fall, you fall with me mentality.


Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 25-Aug-2008 at 20:50
Originally posted by Temujin


i assume the latter Cheers
 
No,  I tried to be friendly. Actually I think you play stupid. Wink
 
 

economy was only one of the reasons for the SU collapse but it was not the main reason why Poland etc joined NATO.
True. But not due to the real danger from Russian side either.
 
 

Berezovksy....? Big%20smile
What Berezovski? Many politologists including those working in American government who claimed and still claim that angering Russia by joining "czhechoslovacian navy" to NATO was a huge mistake and unnecessary. Not to forget that when Russian forces were withdrawn from Berlin Gorbachev was promissed that NATO will not move to East. Here is nowadays reaction of Russia. They all simply cannot be anti-american.

  


this is not an evidence of decline as this barrier has already been established at the very beginnign of the Cold War and hasn't changed since. contrary to the examples i gave (afghanistan, Serbia), so if anything, the US has not declined but the contrary occured.

It's a sign that even best USA allies do no agree to condemn Russia and to let Georgia and Ukraine to NATO.
 
as i said: eventually...
Eventually means after few decades.


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Posted By: Władysław Warnencz
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 00:14

Anton,you seem to be an inteligent man,yet strike me with you're love torwards Russia and hatred to anything western...Just say you'de love to see a new Russian Empire occupying eastern Europe or even a new USSR and stop playing stupid...I'd personally love to see Russia cut into a 100 small countries...



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Posted By: Bankotsu
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 04:06
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

I'd personally love to see Russia cut into a 100 small countries...


What about Germany?

If Russia is dismembered, German militarism might grow and be directed against Poland.


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 11:30
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Leonidas

right now the Russians, the 'friendly' middle eastern petro-economies and the Chinese. They hold most of the US debt (treasuries) right now and with that the power to make the greenback worth less than it already is. They don't because it would cause economic chaos, but they have that choice. not the other way around. The question should be, who's paying a mortage to who? 

right now its the I.O.USAWink



economic chaos cuts both ways and the established "western countries" would recover sooner than the newcomers and the "west" who caused this knows this, this is the reason that this situation exists in the first place, i mean its more or less secure because if i fall, you fall with me mentality.
yes, but who has the cash and who owes who? The US is pulling down the eurozone first, im still waiting to see if aussiland goes with it. Japan is pulling its head in  and the UK is already toasted. Deflating assets make for rich pickings, for who has the cash. BTW im hearing it is russian money that buys the good property in the UK while everyone else is struggling.

The Russians will sell their gas to europe no matter what, and if not then to China, Japan or even to the M/E. There are many other things you can stop spending on before you turn off the heating. If there is any time to recliam some lost ground i would imagine now would be it.



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Posted By: Anton
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 11:40
Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

Anton,you seem to be an inteligent man,yet strike me with you're love torwards Russia and hatred to anything western...Just say you'de love to see a new Russian Empire occupying eastern Europe or even a new USSR and stop playing stupid...I'd personally love to see Russia cut into a 100 small countries...

 
You didn't understand anything Smile Neither do I love to see new Russian Empire with occupied Eastern Europe nor do I hate anythig western. My point is that EU and Russia should collaborate rather than compete and that EU should finnaly start independent from USA politics.


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Posted By: Roberts
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 14:37
Originally posted by Bankotsu

Originally posted by Władysław Warnencz

I'd personally love to see Russia cut into a 100 small countries...


What about Germany?

If Russia is dismembered, German militarism might grow and be directed against Poland.


Lol, Bankotsu, I think Austria will suffer from German militarism first.


Posted By: Bankotsu
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 15:31
I worry that after Russia is dismembered and removed as a factor in european politics, Germany might act cocky, thinks it calls the shots and make land claims on Poland.

Poland's Kaczynski Wants to Stop German Land Claims
http://strasbourgnews.blogspot.com/2007/08/polands-kaczynski-wants-to-stop-german.html - http://strasbourgnews.blogspot.com/2007/08/polan


Posted By: Majkes
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 19:11
Originally posted by Bankotsu

I worry that after Russia is dismembered and removed as a factor in european politics, Germany might act cocky, thinks it calls the shots and make land claims on Poland.

Poland's Kaczynski Wants to Stop German Land Claims
http://strasbourgnews.blogspot.com/2007/08/polands-kaczynski-wants-to-stop-german.html - http://strasbourgnews.blogspot.com/2007/08/polan
 
Kaczynski lives in his own world wher Russians and German just wait for the oportunity to partition Poland again. Yet with about 9% support he has a chance to win next election as me playing for Barca. 
The fact is Germans are rather dangerous for Spain as the buy Mallorca and Canarias not for Poland. It's rather Polish who buy immobilities in Eastern Germany that are cheaper than in Poland. 


Posted By: ArmenianSurvival
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 20:06

Missile "Defense"? Most people, all governments included, are quite aware that there is nothing defensive about this missile system. The system is basically an offensive one, made to ensure the pre-emptive strike capability of the US. I mean, just look at the official reason--Iranian attack on Europe? Thats just a good joke, we all know Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map before it starts its inevitable conquest of Europe LOL

This missile offense system is basically going to have a ripple effect in the arms race.
 
 
 
And what to say about Poland... don't they have the EU to rely on incase of an attack?


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Mass Murderers Agree: Gun Control Works!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Resistance

Քիչ ենք բայց Հայ ենք։


Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 26-Aug-2008 at 21:22
Originally posted by Leonidas


yes, but who has the cash and who owes who? The US is pulling down the eurozone first, im still waiting to see if aussiland goes with it. Japan is pulling its head in  and the UK is already toasted. Deflating assets make for rich pickings, for who has the cash. BTW im hearing it is russian money that buys the good property in the UK while everyone else is struggling.

The Russians will sell their gas to europe no matter what, and if not then to China, Japan or even to the M/E. There are many other things you can stop spending on before you turn off the heating. If there is any time to recliam some lost ground i would imagine now would be it.



what you describe is a static situation, but economy is a cash flow, so it might be that we talk about two different things actually. the thing is, even if it appears that Russia or China have the US/European cash now, that doesn't mean it remains. Russia and China need the cash to spent on things. neither Russia nor China generate money, Russia for example gets it's money from selling ressources. it can however not sell the gas to China because China doesn't generate money, unlike Europe. the Chinese people are in general too poor to buy the gas, unlike the europeans who have a comparatively rich population that can afford buying the gas. japan is part of "the west" too, and the middle east has no market for gas. same is pretty much true for China, China produces western stuff for a western market in western-owned facilities. in a hypothetical situation, a China that ousted the western companies and seized them can still produce those goods but the western market is closed to them and again, the common Chinese people are too poor to buy them so they lost their source of income.


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 28-Aug-2008 at 12:15
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Leonidas


yes, but who has the cash and who owes who? The US is pulling down the eurozone first, im still waiting to see if aussiland goes with it. Japan is pulling its head in  and the UK is already toasted. Deflating assets make for rich pickings, for who has the cash. BTW im hearing it is russian money that buys the good property in the UK while everyone else is struggling.

The Russians will sell their gas to europe no matter what, and if not then to China, Japan or even to the M/E. There are many other things you can stop spending on before you turn off the heating. If there is any time to recliam some lost ground i would imagine now would be it.



what you describe is a static situation, but economy is a cash flow, so it might be that we talk about two different things actually. the thing is, even if it appears that Russia or China have the US/European cash now, that doesn't mean it remains. Russia and China need the cash to spent on things. neither Russia nor China generate money, Russia for example gets it's money from selling ressources. it can however not sell the gas to China because China doesn't generate money, unlike Europe. the Chinese people are in general too poor to buy the gas, unlike the europeans who have a comparatively rich population that can afford buying the gas. japan is part of "the west" too, and the middle east has no market for gas. same is pretty much true for China, China produces western stuff for a western market in western-owned facilities. in a hypothetical situation, a China that ousted the western companies and seized them can still produce those goods but the western market is closed to them and again, the common Chinese people are too poor to buy them so they lost their source of income.
i understand it is in a state of flux. but it still doesn't change the situation at hand. cash flow is at the hands of those that produce and sell more stuff (that others want/need) relative to everyone else. so right now its energy, raw materials, food and then we can work into industrial production/goods. A great measure is the ability to earn foreign  currency, not access foreign debt. China does produce wealth, as does Russia it doesnt make much diffrnece on how they do. Its their ability to do so thats important.

 Dont be fooled in thinking the Chinese are our factory hands, while they are not independant of our economies but they certianly dont depend  on us either. Inter Emerging market, asian and especally their internal trade is very big. Go to the main emerging markets like the PRC and yes they are relatively poor, but GDP is growing at a much greater clip, while in surplus and at a greater speed than population growth. Yep that means each person on average is getting richer. Rightly or wrongly, with an inflation spiral risking to break out, wages are increasing quite dramatically and with CCP approval. So its the story of the rising chinese consumer as well as producer.  In the US/UK they are experiancing deflating wealth, thanks to some history making levels of deverageing across their economy. Most industrial production was shifted offshore long ago, mainly to China. So we have the story of the declining anglo consumer. The producer part is limited at this point in time to high value and very effecient operaters. Who right now doing very well in exporting.

While one is rich and the other is poor, there is a transfer of wealth shifting over as we speak, so that gap you speak off - is narrowing.

Russia sells gas to turkey and also, if needed to iran like last year. The PRC buys LPG shipped from Australia so they can certainly afford the cheaper stuff to be piped in. FYI, the PRC sometimes competes with Japan over regional energy supply as they do over other stuff like wood chips, coal or iron. So resource rich Russia has choices and with them leverege, not Europe or the US.



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Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 28-Aug-2008 at 21:14
in case of Germany, Russia is the no 1 import country for gas and oil, followed by Norway and Britian. however they make about 1/3 of it, so Germany is not completely dependent on Russia or in other words Russia can't cut our oil & gas so Russias lever is not so big afterall.

from personal experience, China doesn't do so well overall. German companies have already started to pull out of China due to rising wages but primarily quality issues, half of them coming back to germany and the other half seeking for new countries to exploit. situation for common Chinese hasn't improved so much at all, at least for most of the population that does not in the industrial areas and not even for all of those. most of what those business papers talk about does not fit with what i can see and is usually just eye-washing.



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